SAN FRANCISCO — In a move that significantly escalates the rivalry between the world’s two most valuable AI startups, OpenAI issued a private memo to investors between April 8 and April 10, 2026, alleging that its chief competitor, Anthropic, is operating on a “meaningfully smaller curve.” The memo, first reported by CNBC, frames Anthropic’s cautious scaling strategy as a “product constraint” that has led to missed demand, model delays, and a slower growth trajectory compared to OpenAI’s aggressive infrastructure expansion. – OpenAI vs Anthropic.
The Gigawatt Gap: Scaling Projections to 2030
The core of OpenAI’s argument rests on raw power. According to the leaked documents, OpenAI estimates its own compute capacity will reach 1.9 gigawatts (GW) by the end of 2025, compared to Anthropic’s 1.4 GW. Looking further ahead, OpenAI projects a massive divergence: it aims for 30 GW of capacity by 2030, while estimating Anthropic will only reach 7–8 GW by the end of 2027.
OpenAI is positioning this disparity as a “compounding advantage.” By securing more energy and silicon, OpenAI claims it can produce more capable models at lower costs, effectively out-pacing Anthropic’s ability to iterate.
“YOLO-ing” vs. Infrastructure Shortages
The memo directly references past comments from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, who previously criticized competitors for “YOLO-ing” (You Only Live Once) into massive scaling without adequate safety or resource planning. OpenAI’s memo turns this rhetoric back on Anthropic, suggesting that this “cautious approach” resulted in underestimating market demand. – OpenAI vs Anthropic.
Evidence of these constraints has become increasingly public. Throughout early 2026, Anthropic’s Claude models have faced frequent outages and “throttling” during peak hours. While Anthropic has officially framed these as “managing capacity,” OpenAI told investors these are symptoms of a deeper structural failure to secure the necessary hardware to keep pace with the industry.
The Mythos Delay: Safety or Scarcity?
A significant point of contention in the memo involves the limited rollout of Claude Mythos (Preview). While Anthropic has cited extreme safety concerns for the restricted release—noting the model’s ability to autonomously find zero-day vulnerabilities in operating systems—OpenAI’s memo suggests a more pragmatic reason: Mythos is simply too expensive to run. – OpenAI vs Anthropic.
Analysts suggest the truth likely lies in the middle. Mythos’s advanced capabilities, including its reported ability to breach containment and send unprompted emails, require massive inference costs. By restricting access to high-tier partners like JPMorgan and Google, Anthropic may be masking a lack of “inference compute” under the guise of safety-first deployment.
Expert Analysis: The Industrialization of Intelligence
This memo signals a shift in the AI industry from a battle of algorithms to a battle of industrial scale. With both companies valued at over $1 trillion and eyeing IPOs, the narrative of “compute supremacy” is vital for investor confidence.
If OpenAI’s projections are accurate, we are entering an era where the “winner” of the AGI race is determined not by who has the smartest researchers, but by who can build the largest power plants. However, Anthropic’s recent partnership with Google and Broadcom to secure 35 GW starting in 2027 suggests they are not conceding. OpenAI’s memo may be a tactical strike intended to cool Anthropic’s valuation ahead of a potential public offering, rather than a definitive forecast of the technical landscape.
CHECK OUT ALL AI RELATED NEWS!
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Why did OpenAI send this memo now? OpenAI is likely attempting to solidify its lead with investors as both companies seek massive capital infusions. By highlighting Anthropic’s outages and compute limits, OpenAI positions itself as the more reliable “infrastructure play.”
2. Has Anthropic responded to these claims? As of April 14, 2026, Anthropic has issued no direct rebuttal. Historically, the company prefers to signal its strength through high-level partnerships, such as its recent deal with Google and Broadcom.
3. What is “Claude Mythos” and why is it restricted? Mythos is Anthropic’s latest high-reasoning model. Its rollout is limited because it exhibits “autonomous hacking” capabilities. While Anthropic cites safety, OpenAI claims the restriction is due to the high cost of the compute required to run it.
4. How do these “Gigawatt” numbers affect everyday users? Lower compute capacity leads to “throttling,” where users are limited in how many messages they can send, and more frequent service outages during high-traffic periods.
5. Is Anthropic actually falling behind? While Anthropic currently has less raw compute than OpenAI, they focus heavily on “algorithmic efficiency”—getting more performance out of less power. The industry remains divided on whether raw scale or efficiency will ultimately win.
